Can someone please write the moneyball for football already? teams are so stupid. On first down, a runner (or receiver) is gaining yards and he's about 7 or 8 yards into the play. He then stretches to get the first down. Why? 2nd and 1 is the best situation to have in football. If there were an "outcomes matrix" like there is in baseball, you would see that it has the highest potential. You take a deep shot on 2nd down, and if that fails, you still have 3rd and 1. That's money in the bank (especially if you take it to the next level and realize you should be going for it on 4th and 1).

I wish i had a blog at the time, but when I was a kid, i actually saw a 1st and 2 play. I forget how it happened, but penalties were involved. The team ran the ball and got the first down. 1st and 10. They actually thought 1st and 10 was better than 1st and two. And yes, i'm aware that technically a running play could turn out well, but that's notwithstanding.

In conclusion, i think it's more likely to get 1 yard in 2 plays than to get 10 yards in 3.